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GEMs Paper #26
Saudi Arabia: beyond oil but not so fast
30 June 2016 Corrected
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Transforming Saudi Arabia, but challenges abound
The Saudi National Transformation Plan (NTP) bodes well for comprehensive reform
efforts to diversify the economy in line with Vision 2030. The NTP a) identifies key
sectors with high growth potential; b) starts to articulate supportive public sector
industrial strategies; and c) seeks to foster higher value-added through enhancements to
processes, products and organizations. Still, ambitious targets in a number of sectors are
unlikely to be reached and medium-term macro sustainability is not yet clear.
USD peg holds but NTP inconsistent with stable FX policy
Our view is still that the USD peg holds. However, the NTP provides a mixed message.
On the one hand, it blurs policymaking incentives given the need for a competitive Fx if
diversification progresses. On the other, unrealistic fiscal targets mean consolidation is
likely to fall short of easing imbalances materially without oil price recovery. Energy
policy thus likely needs to become less aggressive to support macro and FX policies.
Eurobond premium required for fiscal slippage risk
We expect large and regular sovereign Eurobond issuance to support FX reserves and
domestic liquidity but to weigh on regional bond spreads if risk appetite does not hold
up or fiscal balance slips. EMBIG index inclusion is unlikely, in our view. Saudi forwards,
CDS and rates are likely to stay under pressure due to issuance and tight liquidity.
Commodities: NTP adds to medium-term oil tightness
The NTP suggestion that production capacity is maintained until 2020 reinforces our
conviction of medium-term oil market tightness. The NTP gas production target that
could displace domestic crude demand and boost export capacity is challenging.
Equity Strategy: six investible themes on the back of NTP
We see a number of investible themes emerging from the NTP which investors can use
to identify potential beneficiaries. These themes include rising availability of affordable
housing, increased access to healthcare, down-trading as the consumer comes under
pressure, a surge in telecom infrastructure and significant opportunities in the
downstream petrochemical arena. Buy-rated names with access to these themes
include: Al Hammadi, Savola, Al Othaim, STC, Zain KSA and SABIC.
Partial NTP success & MSCI inclusion could drive rerating
The Saudi market trades on a 12m fwd P/E of c.13x, an 11% discount to the long-term
average and its lowest premium to GEMs since 2010. We believe that with earnings
momentum gradually reaching an inflection point a relatively negative outlook is already
being priced in. Given our view that oil prices will gain strong momentum in 2017, even
a partial success of the NTP along with CMA market reforms to expedite inclusion in the
MSCI EM index could be sufficient to improve confidence and thus drive a rerating.
Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not
suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in FX markets and the financial resources to
absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under
the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take
responsibility for this report in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 82 to 85. Analyst Certification on page 81. Price Objective
Basis/Risk on page 77. 11643724
GEM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics
Global
Jean-Michel Saliba
MENA Economist
MLI (UK)
+44 20 7995 8568
jean-michel.saliba@baml.com
Hootan Yazhari, CFA >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch (DIFC)
+971 4 4258218
hootan.yazhari@baml.com
Francisco Blanch
Commodity & Deriv Strategist
MLPF&S
+1 646 855 6212
francisco.blanch@baml.com
Faisal AlAzmeh, CFA >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch KSA Company
+966 11 299 3741
faisal.alazmeh@baml.com
Abdelrali El Jattari >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch (DIFC)
+971 4 4258231
abdelrali.eljattari@baml.com
Jamie Clark, CFA >>
Research Analyst
MLI (UK)
+44 20 7995 1300
jamie.clark@baml.com
Ali Dhaloomal
Research Analyst
MLI (UK)
+44 20 7996 9107
ali.dhaloomal@baml.com
Celine Fornaro >>
Research Analyst
MLI (UK)
+44 20 7996 5515
celine.fornaro@baml.com
See Team Page for Full List of Contributors
A Transforming World
This report ties into the enterprise-wide Investment
Themes recently introduced in A Transforming World. In
particular, the Saudi National Transformation Plan is
likely to span the themes of Markets (Frontier),
Government (Reform) and Earth (Energy Efficiency)
Contents
Macro: charting the way forward 3
Towards better governance 3
Public Investment Fund to gain prominence 7
Historic energy sector liberalization 10
National Transformation Plan: many promises, few details 13
Lessons in diversification 31
Eurobond premium required for fiscal slippage risk 34
Commodities: NTP adds to medium-term oil market tightness 36
Equity Strategy: more clarity required, but investible themes emerging 39
Six key investible themes from the NTP are emerging 40
Saudi market valuation not testing 42
Taking positive steps to accelerate MSCI inclusion 45
A higher weighting in international indices 45
Telecom: supporting a move to higher connectivity 48
NTP helps increase penetration of higher margin offerings 48
Health: Not Tremendously Prescriptive 51
Vision 2030 a start but Needs Transparent Proposals 51
Healthcare implications of National Transformation Plan 51
Consumer: a necessary pain 58
Prefer staples over discretionary 58
Rationalization of subsidies for water and electricity 60
Saudi Arabia approves 100% foreign ownership rules 61
Real estate: NTP positive but not enough 64
Key strategic objectives and KPIs to watch 64
Land tax - gradual revenue source 65
Metals & Mining: ambitious growth target 67
Government focus on mining to boost jobs and growth 67
Oil & gas/petchems: focus on downstream 69
Focus on downstream expansion is a priority 69
Refining capacity target: almost there 71
Ambitious natural gas expansion 72
Utility sector: sharing the capex burden and achieving cost reflective tariffs 73
Eight strategic objectives aimed at being self-funding 73
Defence: Vision 2030 supports defence spending 75
Saudi Arabia to build out military industrial base 75
Research Analysts 86
2 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016
Macro: charting the way forward
Jean-Michel Saliba
MLI (UK)
jean-michel.saliba@baml.com
The Saudi Vision 2030 and National Transformation Plan (NTP) present a
comprehensive roadmap for change and augur for committed diversification efforts, in
our view. Announced reforms can help sustain higher potential growth if fully realized as
new sectoral sources of growth are developed. Positively, the NTP borrows elements
from other successful strategic case studies. Still, we find a number of targets
ambitious or unrealistic on the fiscal and diversification fronts, and the sequencing and
details of the fiscal measures are left nebulous.
In terms of the other pillars of the macro view, namely energy and Fx policy, the NTP
presents a mixed picture, in our view. Energy policy is likely to be less aggressive, as the
NTP suggests a constant oil production capacity. To remain consistent with the targeted
government debt accumulation path, we estimate that oil prices have to average at least
US$50/bbl in 2016-20 along with no growth in spending (excluding the additional cost
of NTP initiatives). Partial implementation could require oil prices of cUS$65/bbl.
Fiscal consolidation remains imperative to support the Fx peg, in line with stability and
economic imperatives. However, as diversification progresses, the case for increased Fx
flexibility to support competitiveness could likely gradually take shape. Policy-making
growth-focused plans may conflict with needs to deflate Fx demand in the economy.
Towards better governance
The comprehensive economic blueprint unveiled by the Saudi Vision 2030 and the
National Transformation Plan (NTP) confirms the economic reform credentials of the
current administration. It is likely to improve government culture, accountability and
transparency, in our view. The NTP will be implemented across 24 government bodies
and has been presented through a number of press conferences with high-level
ministerial presentations. The Governance Framework details steps to institutionalize
and coordinate implementation through restructuring the government. It proposes a
number of committees and bodies to report to the Council for Economic and
Development Affairs (CEDA). It also introduces an escalation mechanism to rapidly
resolve bottlenecks, which could see matters escalated to CEDA in 42 days.
A wide-ranging policy-making reshuffle
In line with ongoing Saudi Vision 2030 implementation efforts, a wide-ranging
restructuring of the Saudi Cabinet and government bodies was announced in May to
drive change in the government. King Salman issued 51 Royal Decrees restructuring the
Cabinet, various government bodies and appointing a number of officials into various
government roles. A statement concurrently issued by the Royal Court suggested these
changes are in line with the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 and aim to support
its implementation. This follows from the January 2015 restructuring of the bodies
affiliated to the Council of Ministers, which saw the creation of CEDA and the Council
for Political and Security Affairs. We list a few major changes below.
New Oil Minister represents technocratic experience and policy continuity
The appointment of Khalid Al-Falih to the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral
Resources is not surprising, given that former Minister of Petroleum and Mineral
Resources Al-Naimi has previously suggested he was approaching retirement due to old
age. Al-Falih’s appointment continues the tradition of non-Royals heading the Ministry,
while simultaneously holding the Chairmanship role of Saudi Aramco. Furthermore,
according to local press, Al-Falih appears close to Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin
Salman, and his appointment likely confirms the recently assertive Royal influence over
energy policy, in our view. New Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Al-
Falih’s past official pronouncements are consistent with stable Saudi energy policy, in
our view.
GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 3
Expanded role for the Oil Ministry under Vision 2030
The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has been expanded to become the
Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources. It will be dedicated for energy, in
addition to expanding to encompass responsibilities relating to electricity and industry.
It will also undertake the management of the National Industrial Cluster Development
Program (NICDP). The new Minister will chair the board of directors of the Royal
Commission for Jubail and Yanbu, the Industrial Development Fund, the Saudi
Organization for Industrial Estates and Technology Zones, the Saudi Geological Survey,
the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, the Saudi Exports Development
Authority and the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy.
Energy sector liberalization drives non-oil diversification
The wider role for the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources is in line with
the expanded industrial responsibilities foreseen for Saudi Aramco in the Vision 2030. It
may also suggest a continued desire to liberalize the energy sector. The National
Industrial Cluster Development Program (NICDP), established in October 2012 by the
Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Commerce and
Industry, could likely gain further importance in the industrialization strategy adopted in
the Vision 2030. The NICDP will be managed by the Ministry of Energy. It seeks to
leverage Saudi Arabia’s comparative advantage in energy, petrochemicals and minerals
to create sustainable export oriented industries, initially focused on the automotive,
construction material, appliances, metal processing and flexible packaging sectors.
Restructuring the Cabinet and other government bodies
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry will become the Ministry of Commerce and
Investment and sees the appointment of a new Minister. The new Minister will chair the
board of directors of the General Authority for Investment, the General Authority for
Small and Medium Enterprises and the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality
Organization. The Ministry of Labor will be merged with the Ministry of Social Affairs to
form the Ministry of Labor and Social Development, and sees the appointment of a new
Minister. The Ministry of Water and Electricity has been disbanded. The Ministry of
Agriculture was renamed the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture and
expands its responsibilities into these areas. Two new Ministers for Transport and
Health were appointed. The Ministry of Hajj has been renamed the Ministry of Hajj and
Umrah and sees the appointment of a new Minister.
The Saudi Fund for Development will now report to the Council for Economic and
Development Affairs. The General Authority for Entertainment and the General Authority
for Culture have been created. The Department of Zakat and Income Tax was renamed
the General Authority for Zakat and Income, and will report to the Ministry of Finance.
New Central Bank Governor maintains commitment to USD peg
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) Governor Al-Mubarak has been replaced in his
post by SAMA Deputy Governor for Research and International Affairs Dr. Al-Kholifey. A
number of officials were also appointed into various government and advisory roles.
New SAMA Governor Al-Kholifey’s past policy pronouncements suggest continued
commitment to the USD peg.
Watch the Saudi Fund for Development
The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) new direct link to the Council for Economic and
Development Affairs likely concentrates further authority in the Deputy Crown, in our
view. Given that the Public Investment Fund (PIF) last saw similar links being established
prior to plans being made for it to be turned into a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), this
could suggest further strategic changes may take place at the SFD.
4 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016
Exhibit 1: Saudi Vision 2030 Governance Model
Source: Saudi Vision 2030
A web of Strategic Programs
Saudi Vision 2030 incorporates a number of Executive Programs and initiatives, with
implementation carried out by several government entities. The Vision continues to
centralize decision-making into CEDA, chaired by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, and reporting to the Council of Ministers. The Ministry of Economy and
Planning also retains an important role, with lower emphasis being put on the Ministry
of Finance. The Project Management Program also suggests emphasis on ongoing
review of capital expenditures, whereby existing review served to examine their approval
process, and control their level. From a macro perspective, the three most important
programs for now are: a) the re-shaping of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) into a
US$2trn Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF); b) the new corporate strategy for Saudi Aramco
to transform it into an energy and industrial conglomerate; and, c) the National
Transformation Plan (NTP) which encompasses medium-term growth boosting
initiatives and fiscal consolidation measures (alongside the Fiscal Balance and
Privatization Programs). We discuss these three elements in turn below.
Table 1: Strategic Programs introduced by the Saudi Vision 2030
Strategic Program
Comment
Government Restructuring Program
Supreme Councils have already been implemented, and the Council of Political and Security Affairs and the Council of
Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA) have been established
Strategic Directions Program
Strategic directions determined by state agencies and approved by the government
Regulations Review Program
Several laws have been reviewed or enacted already such as the Company Law, the Non-Governmental Organizations Law,
the White Land Law, and the General Authority for Endowments (Awqaf) Law
Performance Measurement Program
Center for Performance Management of Government Agencies has been established
Human Capital Program
Aims to measure, assess, analyze and support the efficiency of civil service
Program for Strengthening Public Sector Governance Strategic Management Office reporting to CEDA as well as a Decision Support Center at the Royal Court are to be established
Strategic Partnerships Program
Aims for stronger ties with economic partners to enhance exports
"Daem" Program
Aims to enhance the quality of cultural activities and entertainment
Private Sector Growth Stimulation Program
Under consideration
Regional Development Program
Under consideration
Fiscal Balance Program Likely target of achieving fiscal balance by 2020
Project Management Program
Expert Project Management Offices (PMOs) and a Central Delivery Unit have been established
Saudi Aramco Strategic Transformation Program
Aims to position Saudi Aramco as a leader in more than one sector
Public Investment Fund (PIF) Restructuring Program
Aims to transform the PIF into the largest Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in the world
Privatization Program
Comprehensive privatization program; targets under study
National Transformation Plan Program Interim Key Performance Indicators (KPI) targets to achieve by 2020
Source: Saudi Vision 2030, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 5
Table 2: Initiatives introduced by the Saudi Vision 2030
Initiative Current Target
Religious tourism
Number of yearly Umrah visitors per year (mn) 8 30
Building the largest Islamic museum in the world - -
Culture
Number of Saudi heritage sites registered with UNESCO 4 8
Number of Saudi cities recognized in the top-ranked 100 cities in the world 0 3
Household spending on cultural and entertainment activities (%) 2.9 6
Social
Average life expectancy (years) 74 80
Unemployment rate (%) 11.6 7
Female labour force participation (%) 22 30
Household savings ratio (% of household income) 6 10
Ranking in the Social Capital Index 26 10
Ratio of individuals exercising at least once a week (%) 13 40
Number of volunteers per year 11,000 1,000,000
Localization
Localization of oil and gas sectors (%) 40 75
Localization of defence industry (%) 2 50
Renewable energy value chain (%) - -
Sovereign Wealth Fund
Public Investment Fund assets (SAR bn) 600 7,000
Economy
Global ranking of the economy in terms of size 19 15
Ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index 25 10
Ranking in the Logistics Performance Index 49 25
Private sector contribution to GDP (%) 40 65
Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) 3.8 5.7
Non-oil exports share in non-oil GDP (%) 16 50
SME contribution to GDP (%) 20 35
Non-profit sector contribution to GDP <1 5
Improving the business environment and pursuing public-private partnerships - -
Rehabilitating economic cities and restructure King Abdullah Financial District - -
Establishing special zones such as logistic, tourist, industrial and financial ones - -
Revise energy subsidies and redirect support to eligible citizens and economic sectors - -
Ease restrictions on ownership and foreign investment in the retail sector - -
Fiscal
Non-oil government revenue (SAR bn) 163 1,000
Governance
Ranking in the Government Effectiveness Index 80 20
Ranking in the E-Government Survey Index 36 5
Source: Saudi Vision 2030
6 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016
Public Investment Fund to gain prominence
The restructuring of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) is likely to allow greater focus on
achieving a diversified foreign asset base which could support in turn the build-up of
non-oil revenues. According to Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
government ownership of Saudi Aramco would be transferred to the PIF, which will be
transformed into a SWF that will look to increase its overseas assets (from 5% of total
to 50% of total by 2020) following its recapitalization and the proceeds of Aramco IPO.
The PIF would hold on-paper a vast amount of wealth post-IPO (US$2trn, according to
the Deputy Crown Prince, the bulk of which would be Saudi Aramco) as ownership of
Saudi Aramco is transferred to the PIF, but it would only be able to deploy the cash
proceeds of the monetized Aramco stake in the near-term, in our view. We think the
PIF’s transformation is still at a relatively early stage for now.
Room to grow PIF stature and budget contribution
The restructuring of the PIF is likely to allow further diversification of foreign assets,
which will in turn increase the share of investment income in the budget over time. We
estimate that in 2015 investment income transferred to the budget stood at US$9.9bn
(1.5% of GDP), which entails transfers of US$4bn from the PIF and US$5bn from SAMA.
These transfers pale in comparison to the estimated budgetary contributions among
main GCC peers. We estimate that the rate of return (investment income) on foreign
assets of SAMA, government entities and the private sector averaged c2% over the past
8 years, which already suggests some exposure to riskier asset classes, in our view. As
the PIF gains importance, it will become more prominent in the examination of the
breakdown of the Saudi Net International Investment Position .
Transitioning to an Abu Dhabi model
It will be interesting to see how the restructuring of the PIF into an SWF works out in
practice. We hypothesise that it may be that, on top of the monetization of Aramco's
stake sale, PIF could get a portion of the assets of SAMA. In this scenario, we would
effectively transition to the Abu Dhabi and Kuwait model where the central bank holds
little reserves and non-transparent SWFs are what matters both in terms of flow and
stock. Foreign assets purchases of the PIF would also have to be managed within the
overall Balance of Payments (BoP) framework as they could lead to drains on SAMA
reserves in the near term. Over time, Saudi Arabia could decide to emulate the Norway
model, which would entail a more prudent use and conduct of fiscal policy, in our view.
Chart 1: PIF budget contributions small versus GCC SWF contributions
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
US$bn % of GDP % of total revenues
0
Qatar Abu Dhabi Kuwait Saudi Arabia Dubai
Source: Haver, IMF, Saudi Ministry of Finance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. 2015 data,
Investment income and transfer of profits of public entities for Kuwait. Investment income from
public enterprises (incudes Qatar Petroleum’s net income) for Qatar.
Chart 2: High rate of return suggests foreign assets well diversified
10
Implied rate of return with respect to IIP assets (%)
Implied rate of return with respect to SAMA reserve assets (%)
3.0
Net income balance (% of GDP, rhs)
2.5
8
2.0
6
4
2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Implied rate of return on SAMA reserve assets
simplistically assumes all investment income is earned by SAMA (instead of being earned by SAMA,
government entities and the private sector).
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 7
PIF largely a domestic inward-looking entity until recently
The IMF reports that the PIF had assets of 11.1% of GDP in 2014 (c.SAR310bn). PIF has
foreign assets of SAR14.1bn as of end-2015. It has outstanding loans of SAR103.9bn as
of 3Q15 (excluding electricity loans of SAR14bn that PIF administers). According to
Bloomberg, PIF had stakes in publicly listed companies on Tadawul worth SAR934bn as
of April 2016. According to the MoF, PIF held equity worth SAR63.3bn in 41 Saudi
companies in total at end-2011, as well as stakes worth SAR14.9bn in a number of pan-
Arab corporations.
In July 2014, the cabinet authorized the PIF to establish companies inside and outside
Saudi Arabia, alone or in partnership with other institutions from the public or private
sectors. It also bought a US$1.1bn stake in a South Korean company and recently
announced in early June it took a US$3.5bn stake in Uber, denying in the process that it
was considering a US$3bn loan to fund the acquisition. PIF has been asked to co-invest
US$10bn in Russia or the Middle East with the RIDF. Note that PIF has established
Sanabil investments with SAR20bn in capital. The PIF has paid dividends to the budget
last year (SAR15bn). It now reports directly to the Council of Economic and
Development Affairs headed by the Deputy Crown Prince, after reporting to the Ministry
of Finance in the past.
JASTA bill not a hurdle for further Saudi investment in the US
We expect that the deep and liquid US financial markets will remain a prominent
destination for Saudi foreign asset holdings. The potential passage of the “9/11” bill
(Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, JASTA) in US Congress raises the possibility
that Saudi Arabia would choose to liquidate up to US$750bn in assets in the US,
according to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. A forced and rapid liquidation of USbased
Saudi foreign assets may expose SAMA and other government entities to markto-market
losses, and require changes to Fx reserve management
The language of the JASTA bill as it currently stands does not suggest an imminent
Saudi sell-off of US assets, in our view. The “Stay of Actions Pending State
Negotiations” section inserted into the bill allows a stay to be granted for an indefinitely
renewable 180-day period. This would be subject to court petition by the Attorney
General and repeated certification by the Secretary of State that the US is “engaged in
good faith discussions with the foreign state defendant concerning the resolution of the
claims against the foreign state”. The certification thus depends on the current and
future US administration foreign policy inclinations, in our view. Separately, we note
that the White House spokesman said US President Obama did not support the
legislation and likely would not sign it. (A potential presidential veto may however still
be overruled if Congress assembles the necessary two–thirds vote of each house). We
continue to expect a close relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia given the
confluence of interests in a broad range of matters.
8 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016
Table 3: Breakdown of Saudi Arabia Net International Investment Position (US$bn)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net International Investment Position 380 471 435 479 585 685 763 792 703
% of GDP 91 91 101 91 87 93 103 105 108
Net Foreign assets (excluding SAMA) 74 28 24 34 41 28 37 59 87
% of GDP 18 5 6 6 6 4 5 8 13
Assets 495 631 636 708 824 936 1,028 1,069 993
Non-reserve assets 190 188 226 262 280 279 302 337 376
by holder:
Investment funds 7 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 7
Commercial banks 39 41 56 52 56 57 56 67 84
Public Investment Fund (PIF) foreign investment 1 2 2 4 4 5 4 4 4
Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) cumulative loan disbursements 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 -
Public Pension Agency (PPA) and General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI) net foreign assets - 49 - - - 98 112 - -
of which, managed by SAMA (e) 43 48 51 59 65 69 75 80 78
PPA net foreign assets - 24 - - - 63 72 - -
GOSI net foreign assets - 25 - - - 35 40 - -
Development funds and other government (exc. PPA/GOSI) entities’ foreign assets managed by SAMA (e) 15 17 18 20 22 23 25 27 26
Other - 69 - - - 85 92 - -
by instrument:
Direct investment abroad 17 20 23 27 30 34 39 45 63
Portfolio investment 105 99 122 146 158 168 178 199 202
Equity securities 53 50 59 79 82 92 99 111 109
Debt securities 52 48 63 68 77 75 79 88 94
Other investment 68 69 82 90 92 77 85 93 111
Loans 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1
Currency and deposits 55 63 73 76 78 69 76 85 105
Other assets 10 3 5 11 11 6 7 6 5
SAMA Reserve assets 306 443 410 445 544 657 726 732 616
Currency and deposits 93 132 111 117 148 197 191 187 204
Foreign securities 211 308 286 315 380 444 519 532 400
Other assets 2 3 13 13 16 16 15 13 12
Liabilities -116 -160 -201 -228 -239 -251 -265 -278 -289