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Election 2016: Trump Wins Presidency,
Republicans Hold Congress
Washington Council Ernst & Young 9 November 2016
After the most tumultuous and unpredictable campaign in modern history, Republican Donald Trump
upset Democrat Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency, claiming at least 279 electoral votes (270
electoral votes to win) to Clinton’s 228, with results in Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire still
outstanding, according to the Associated Press. The popular vote margin remains close, with Trump
currently trailing by approximately 200,000 votes out of a total of almost 120 million votes that have
been counted. Clinton’s blue wall of support was pierced by Trump with unexpected wins in
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He also won the needed battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and North
Carolina. With fewer losses than expected, Republicans will retain their majorities in the House and
Senate, thereby controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Clinton, who called Trump last night to concede the race, said this morning, “I offered to work with him
[Trump] on behalf of our country” and “our nation is more deeply divided than we thought,” but went on
to say, “we stand together…and our best days are still ahead of us.” In his remarks shortly before 3:00
AM, President-elect Trump said, “It is time to bind the wounds of division. It is time for us to come
together as one united America.” He went on to say that it was “not a campaign, but an incredible
movement.” And, alluding to his policy agenda, Trump said we “would be working together to begin the
task of rebuilding our nation and renewing the American dream.” Trump has touted an agenda of
revitalizing the economy and promoting job growth by reforming the tax code, rebuilding America’s
infrastructure, repealing and replacing “Obamacare,” and being “tough” on immigration and in
renegotiating international trade agreements.
Maintaining the Senate majority will give Republicans the ability to set the agenda in the
Senate. However, bipartisan cooperation still will be necessary to achieve meaningful policy
accomplishments as Senate rules generally require a 60-vote threshold for movement on most
issues. An early challenge may be filling the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Antonin
Scalia in early 2016 – one that could spark fireworks on Capitol Hill and across the country’s highly
charged political environment. How Republicans, Democrats, and Trump navigate through the process
of nominating and confirming a new Justice to the Supreme Court is likely to set the tone in the Senate
for the next two years. The nature of Speaker Paul Ryan’s relationship with President-elect Trump and
his often unruly House Republican Conference is not clear at this time. However, the House Republican
“Better Way” agenda, which was developed in consultation with the Trump campaign, is now a focal
point for congressional action.
A
O
R
C
O
M
N
K
Y
Electoral votes
Trump Clinton
279 228
Leaning Democratic
Leaning Republican
Contents
Election results
Senate profile
House profile
Administration and agenda
Lame-duck session 2016
Tax
Health
Energy
Financial services
Trade
2
4
6
8
11
13
17
19
21
23
1 | Election 2016
Election results
With Republicans set to control the White House, Senate, and House
of Representatives for the session of Congress beginning in January
2017, the lame-duck session of the current Congress between now
and the end of this year seems likely to be limited to keeping the
government funded beyond the expiration of the current continuing
resolution on December 9, 2016. President-elect Trump and the
Republican Congress are certain to provide ambitious policy agendas
with plenty of proposals to analyze and the need for significant
legislative activity. However, it remains to be seen where Democrats
and Republicans, particularly in the Senate, will be able to forge
compromise.
With 24 of the 34 Senate seats up for election on November 8th held
by Republicans, and many of those seats quite vulnerable, retaining
control is a major victory for Senate Majority Leader Mitch
McConnell (R-KY) and his Republican majority. Currently,
Republicans are expected to hold at least 51 seats in the new
congress, with Senator Kelly Ayotte’s (R-NH) reelection bid in New
Hampshire still undecided. In Louisiana, State Treasurer John
Kennedy (R) received 25 percent of the vote and Foster Campbell
(D), a member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission, received
17% in a crowded 24 candidate “jungle primary” to advance to a
runoff election to be held on December 10, 2016. Senior House
Ways and Means Committee member Charles Boustany (R-LA) fell
just short in his quest to make the two-candidate runoff receiving
15% of the vote. While the Louisiana seat is technically undecided,
the state went strongly Republican in the Presidential election and
Kennedy is heavily favored to hold the seat.
Illinois Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) lost his race to Rep. Tammy
Duckworth (D-IL). In Indiana, Rep. Todd Young (R-IN) won his race
against former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) to succeed
retiring Senator Dan Coats (R-IN). In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto
(D-NV) beat Rep. Joe Heck (R-NV) to hold the seat of retiring Senate
Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). In other notable races:
► Ohio: Once ground zero for Senate control, Senator Rob Portman
(R-OH) easily beat former Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH).
► North Carolina: In a race that was consistently within the margin
of error in recent days, Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) held onto his
seat against former state legislator Deborah Ross (D-NC).
► Pennsylvania: Behind in most recent polling, Senator Pat Toomey
(R-PA) prevailed against former federal and state environmental
official Katie McGinty (D-PA).
Select Senate race results
Arizona
Kirkpatrick
McCain
Colorado
Bennet
Glenn
Florida
Murphy
Rubio
Illinois
Duckworth
Kirk
Indiana
Bayh
Young
Missouri
Kander
Blunt
Nevada
Cortez Masto
Heck
New Hampshire
Hassan
Ayotte ?
North Carolina
Ross
Burr
Ohio
Strickland
Portman
Pennsylvania
McGinty
Toomey
Wisconsin
Feingold
Johnson
2 | Election 2016
Election results
Along with the House GOP majority, Senate Republicans will unambiguously set the agenda in the new Congress. However,
with a closely divided Senate, Republicans will be well short of the 60 votes necessary under the Senate rules to bring
debate to a close (cloture) and advance controversial legislation without votes from the other party. Narrow Republican
and Democratic majorities in the recent past have both found their legislative agendas stalled unless they were willing to
compromise to attract bipartisan support.
One area where 60 votes are not required is confirming appointments to the Administration and the Federal courts, with
the exception of the Supreme Court. There could be speculation about whether Senate Republicans would consider a rules
change to create a 51 vote threshold for Supreme Court nominees, also known as the “nuclear option.” But any serious
consideration on this front is far from certain.
Republican House losses in the election were minimized for a number of reasons, including the Republican turnout for
Donald Trump, the relatively static map created by the post-2010 redistricting process, and highly localized campaigns
run by Republican House Members in marginal districts where support for Trump was weaker. With a loss in the single
digits, the GOP majority goes from 246 members to somewhere in the 230s, giving Republicans a margin of 20 or so seats
versus the current 30.
3 | Election 2016
Senate profile
Current Majority Leader McConnell will stay in the post after successfully working this past session to keep the Senate in
Republican hands, while Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) will take over for retiring Senator Reid after 12 years as
Democratic Leader. Given that Republicans held control of the Senate, McConnell will spend the next two years working
toward a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority in the 2018 elections, when 25 Democratic or Independent seats are up for reelection,
compared with only eight Republicans. Schumer will likely try to reach some compromises with Republicans while
distinguishing his party ahead of 2018, and will likely be pulled left, with the influence of Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-
MA) and Bernie Sanders (D-VT).
Leadership elections are expected to be held on Wednesday, November 16, and committee ratios, likely to be close to
what they are now, will be determined soon after the Senate reconvenes. Predicting the chair and ranking members of
Senate committees immediately after an election is speculative because members with seniority will be able to choose
between chairmanships and must adhere to Senate Republican committee leadership term limits. Republican senators may
serve as chairman for six years and six years as ranking member for any one committee, on a cumulative basis. Following
is a discussion of expected select committee chairmen and membership for 2017. An added complication could arise
should sitting Republican senators be tapped for cabinet positions in the Trump administration.
AGRICULTURE, NUTRITION, AND FORESTRY (Same leadership as 114 th Congress)
Chairman Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Ranking Member Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
APPROPRIATIONS
Chairman Thad Cochran (R-MS) Ranking Member ?????
Several Democrats on the committee with significant seniority are in line to choose other ranking positions: Leahy -
Judiciary; Murray - HELP; Feinstein - Intelligence; Durbin, who serves as the Assistant Democratic Leader, and doesn’t
take a ranking member position on a major committee; and Jack Reed - Armed Services. However, given the importance
of the Appropriations Committee and its responsibility for preparing bills to fund the government, it would be surprising
that the ranking position would be very far down that list.
ARMED SERVICES (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman John McCain (R-AZ)
Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-RI)
BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT
Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Ranking Member Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) has served his six-year limit as Chairman.
BUDGET
Chairman Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
If Senator Murray retains the ranking slot on HELP, former presidential candidate Sanders will continue to fill the ranking
member role.
COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman John Thune (R-SD)
Ranking Member Bill Nelson (D-FL)
4 | Election 2016
Senate profile
ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY)
Ranking Member Tom Carper (D-DE)
Jim Inhofe (R-OK) has exhausted his six-year limit. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), the current ranking member of EPW, is
retiring. Senator Carper could opt for the post over his current position on the Homeland Security and Governmental
Affairs Committee. If Carper decides to stay at HSGA, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) would have the option of ranking
member of EPW or Foreign Relations. If Cardin should choose Foreign Relations, Senator Sanders would be next in line for
the ranking member position. Barrasso can be expected to continue the criticisms of current Chairman Inhofe of EPA
regulations and their effect on US energy development and the energy industry.
FINANCE (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Senator Hatch will continue to serve as Chairman by way of an agreement reached with Senator Grassley, who is actually
more senior to Senator Hatch on the Committee. (Grassley will serve as Judiciary Chairman.) Dan Coats (R-IN) is retiring
from Congress. Senators Richard Burr (R-NC) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) both won re-election races. Eight Democratic
committee members will be running for re-election in 2018: Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Bill Nelson
(D-FL), Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Tom Carper (D-DE), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Bob Casey (D-PA).
FOREIGN RELATIONS (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN)
Ranking Member Ben Cardin (D-MD)
HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR, AND PENSIONS
Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA)
If Senator Murray opts for ranking member of Appropriations, Senator Sanders would be in line to be ranking member of
HELP where he could be expected to use the position to highlight income inequality.
HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
Chairman Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Ranking Member Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Senator McCaskill will get the ranking member position if Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) opts for ranking member of EPW.
JUDICIARY
Chairman Charles Grassley (R-IA)
Ranking Member Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Senator Leahy will have the option of choosing ranking member of either Appropriations or Judiciary. Most think that with
the expectation of at least one Supreme Court nomination and immigration reform legislation in the next two years, he will
opt to stay in the ranking position on Judiciary.
5 | Election 2016
House profile
By retaining control of the House and Senate, with the loss of only a few seats, and winning the White House, Republicans
believe they have a mandate to govern. The potential for a Freedom Caucus challenge to Paul Ryan’s leadership is unlikely
given the party’s strong showing. The path is clear for the Speaker to pursue the policy actions described in the “Better
Way” policy platform developed earlier this year and promoted through the ubiquitous presence of a pamphlet describing
the plan that he used during the campaign and press appearances. That effort generated interest from Trump, who
adapted his tax plan to reflect some of the proposals.
The week following the elections and prior to Thanksgiving will be focused on internal party organizational issues,
including the election of party leadership, and discussion around Republican conference and Democratic caucus rules and
the makeup of the Steering Committee, which will determine committee assignments. The leadership of the chamber will
be decided in closed-door meetings during this time, with a formal floor vote for Speaker in January. Some Steering
Committee decisions regarding committees are likely to take place after Thanksgiving and to include ratification of
committee chairmanships and Speaker-appointed committee memberships, as well as appointments of members to vacant
slots on “A” committees (including Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Financial Services). Ryan and Democratic
Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will conduct a negotiation to determine committee ratios, which would be expected to be close
to what they are now.
WAYS AND MEANS (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX)
Ranking Member Sander Levin (D-MI)
Republican members Boustany and Young ran for Senate ,and Rep. Robert Dold (R-IL) lost his re-election campaign,
leaving three open seats. Republicans under consideration for Committee seats include Reps. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL), Mike
Bishop (R-MI), Bradley Byrne (R-AL), Jackie Walorski (R-IN) and Andy Barr (R-KY). Longtime Democratic members Charles
Rangel (D-NY) and Jim McDermott (D-WA) are retiring.
ENERGY & COMMERCE
Chair John Shimkus (R-IL)/Greg Walden (R-OR)
Ranking Member Frank Pallone (D-NJ)
Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) will reach his term limit as chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee and will step down at
the end of the current Congress. Rep. Upton noted that he’s “not planning to” seek a waiver of the term limits. The two
current frontrunners to replace the outgoing chairman include Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Greg Walden (R-OR). Rep.
Shimkus has seniority on the committee, but Walden has also generated party support related to his role serving as
chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee for the past two election cycles. Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) is
also expected to run for the Chairmanship. The powerful Republican Steering Committee, consisting of Republican
leadership as well as rank-and-file members, will decide in a private meeting who will lead the committee in the 115 th
Congress. Adding to the leadership shuffle at the Energy and Commerce Committee, the current chairman of the E&C
Subcommittee on Health, Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA), is retiring at the end of the Congress. Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) is under
consideration to replace him.
EDUCATION & THE WORKFORCE
Chairman Virginia Foxx (R-NC)
Ranking Member Bobby Scott (D-VA)
Current Chairman John Kline (R-MN) did not seek reelection. He will likely be succeeded as chair of the House Education
and Workforce Committee by Rep. Foxx. She has had a limited role on pension and retirement issues, but has been a
reliable voice for limited government regulation and joined in opposing the Obama Administration’s investment advice
regulations. Where Chairman Kline put pension reform high on the committee’s agenda, Foxx has not signaled a strong
interest in making pension issues a priority.
6
| Election 2016
House profile
APPROPRIATIONS
Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R–NJ)
Ranking Member Nita Lowey (D-NY)
BUDGET
Chairman Tom Price (R-GA)
Ranking Member John Yarmuth (D-KY)
Current ranking Member Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) was elected to the Senate; Yarmuth is expected to replace him.
FINANCIAL SERVICES (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)
Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA)
JUDICIARY (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA)
Ranking Member John Conyers (D-MI)
OVERSIGHT (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT)
Ranking Member Elijah Cummings (D-MD)
TRANSPORTATION (Same leadership as 114th Congress)
Chairman Bill Shuster (R-PA)
Ranking Member Peter DeFazio (D-OR)
7 | Election 2016
Administration and
agenda
Looking ahead to the Trump administration and a
Republican-controlled Congress, the focus will be on
Trump’s top priorities: infrastructure, tax reform,
dismantling the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and
immigration reform. President-elect Trump highlighted
his commitment to infrastructure investment during his
victory speech early November 9. “We are going to fix our
inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels,
airports, schools, hospitals,” he said. “We’re going to
rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way,
second to none. And we will put millions of our people to
work as we rebuild it.” Trump would fund infrastructure
investment through public-private partnerships and
private investments through tax incentives rather than
tax reform, though he has called for early action on that
issue as well. On October 22, Trump outlined a voter
contract for his first 100 days plan that calls for
enactment of:
► The Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act
(comprehensive tax reform);
► The End the Offshoring Act, to establish tariffs to
discourage companies from laying off their workers in
order to relocate in other countries and ship their
products back to the U.S. tax-free;
► The American Energy & Infrastructure Act, to leverage
public-private partnerships and private investments
through tax incentives to raise $1 trillion in
infrastructure investment over 10 years;
► The School Choice And Education Opportunity Act, to
expand primary education options and make college
more affordable;
► The Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act, to repeal the
ACA and replace it with Health Savings Accounts;
► The Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act, to allow
Americans to deduct childcare and elder care;
► The End Illegal Immigration Act, to fund the
construction of a wall on the Mexican border;
► The Restoring Community Safety Act, to reduce crime;
► The Restoring National Security Act, to rebuild the
military by eliminating the defense sequester and
expanding military investment; and
► The Clean up Corruption in Washington Act, to enact
“new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce
the corrupting influence of special interests on our
politics.”
As part of the voter contract announced in October,
Trump has also pledged to act on his first day in office to
“cancel every unconstitutional executive action,
memorandum and order issued by President Obama.”
Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci said in October that
the new administration would repeal the rulemaking on
conflicts of interest in the delivery of investment advice to
IRA and 401(k) plan investors.
Regulations that have been finalized cannot be
unilaterally vacated by executive order without
intervening regulatory or legislative action. In order to
make changes to final regulations without legislative
action, agencies are typically required to follow the
administrative procedural process which requires a notice
and comment process prior to modifying regulations. If
an Administration wishes to repeal or revise a final
regulation through the administrative process, the agency
may be required to demonstrate that its actions are not
“arbitrary and capricious,” and based on more than a
change in political views. It is possible that a new
Administration could dispense with the notice and
comment process by moving to issue an interim final rule,
replacing the previous regulation. In this situation, the
agency could be called on demonstrate that it acted with
“good cause” to circumvent the typical notice and
comment requirements.
A new Administration could also use its executive power
to affect the level of legal defense of challenges to
existing regulations provided by the Administration or
temporarily refuse to exercise its enforcement
responsibilities until compelled through legal action or
public pressure.
Trump also intends to immediately begin the process of
filling the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of
Antonin Scalia in early 2016 – one that could spark
fireworks on Capitol Hill and across the country’s highly
charged political environment. How Republicans,
Democrats, and Trump navigate through the process of
nominating and confirming a Justice to the Supreme
Court is likely to set the tone in the Senate for the next
two years.
Trump also intends to act on trade issues on his first day
in office, including:
► announcing his intention to renegotiate or withdraw
from NAFTA;
► ·announcing withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific
Partnership; and
8
| Election 2016
Administration and
agenda
► directing Treasury to label China a currency
manipulator.
Consistent with Trump’s desire to change the way
business is conducted in Washington, he also pledges to
act on his first day in office to:
► propose a constitutional amendment to impose term
limits on all members of Congress;
► require that for every new federal regulation, two
existing regulations must be eliminated; and
► impose a five–year ban on White House and
congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they
leave government service.
(The Trump Contract with the Voter is available at
https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/CONTRACT_FOR_THE_
VOTER.pdf)
Budget. While President-elect Trump has vowed to act
quickly on repeal of the ACA, it is difficult to see how that
can be accomplished outside of reconciliation instructions
for FY 2018. “When we win on November 8th, and elect a
Republican Congress, we will be able to immediately
repeal and replace Obamacare. I will ask Congress to
convene a special session,” he said November 1.
An early focus of attention will be the first Trump budget
proposal and the congressional FY 2018 budget
resolution. As with the past several years under divided
government, a main issue will be how to address the
Budget Control Act sequester for FY 2018. According to
the Congressional Budget Office, the cap on discretionary
budget authority originally established by the Budget
Control Act is set at $1.156 billion in 2018, though it will
be reduced by automatic procedures unless Congress
intervenes. CBO said the reduction will total $91 billion
for 2018: $54 billion for defense and $37 billion in 2018
for nondefense. Therefore, total budget authority is
slated to be $1.065 trillion, split between $549 billion for
defense and $516 billion for nondefense. Both Trump and
Speaker Ryan want to eliminate the sequester as it
applies to defense, but would likely want to maintain the
sequester for non-defense spending.
As reported in Politico last month, Speaker Ryan is bullish
on using the “budget reconciliation” process to pass
significant tax reform. “This is our plan for 2017,” Ryan
said, waving a copy of his “Better Way” policy agenda.
“Much of this you can do through budget reconciliation.”
He said key pieces are “fiscal in nature,” meaning they
can be moved quickly through a budget maneuver that
requires a simple majority in the Senate and House.
9
Use of “Budget Reconciliation” to enact legislation
involves a two-step process. First, both Chambers of
Congress need to pass a concurrent Budget Resolution
(requires only simple majority in the Senate) that contains
“reconciliation instructions.” These instructions are
directions to committees of jurisdiction to change the
spending or revenue numbers (or both), and to report
back the changes by a date certain. A budget resolution
generally is a legislative vehicle that serves as the
blueprint for fiscal policy and establishes a framework for
consideration of spending and revenue bills for the
coming fiscal year. Technically, a budget resolution is a
“concurrent resolution” which is binding in the House and
the Senate. Because a concurrent resolution is not
submitted to the President for signature, it does not have
the force of law.
The second part of the process is to pass “reconciliation”
bills that adhere to the reconciliation instructions from
the budget resolution.
Reconciliation bills can involve changes to spending,
revenue, or the debt limit (or any combination of the
three). Importantly, these reconciliation bills also only
require a simple majority in the House and Senate for
passage.
Reconciliation bills carry strict debate time and
amendment restrictions, but unlike a budget resolution,
reconciliation legislation contains specific spending and
revenue policy changes that are signed into law by the
President. In the Senate, debate is limited to 20 hours.
While only a simple majority is required for passage in the
Senate, 60 votes are required to waive violations of the
so-called “Byrd rule,” which prohibits the inclusion of
provisions that increase the budget deficit for the period
outside the budget window, usually a 10-year period. An
unlimited number of amendments may be offered and
voted upon, even after the 20 hours of debate have
expired – a process often referred to as a “vote-a-rama”.
This process is attractive because of the simple majority
vote in the Senate, but carries with it restrictions such as
the ten-year expiration for titles of the bill that increase
the deficit outside the budget window.