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CNN International
Xi Jinping and the New Politburo Standing Committee
Robert Lawrence Kuhn - October 26, 2017
HOST: The author of How China’s Leaders Think: The Inside
Story of Past, Current and Future Leaders, Robert Lawrence
Kuhn is a longtime advisor to the Chinese government. He
comes to us once again from Beijing. We talked this time
yesterday. Good to have you back. And we discussed
yesterday what we would learn about that lineup of the
standing committee. It hadn’t been revealed at that point
that we spoke, but we now know and is it correct to say the
most significant thing is no sign of a leader in waiting?
RLK: I think the most significant sign is who the people are
and how they relate to each other. It’s a group that actually
respects traditional norms.
RLK: There was thought that Wang Qishan, for example,
might violate norms by being on the Standing Committee
after the traditional retirement age and that’s not the case.
There is balance among the member in terms of their
geographies, even their political affiliations within the party
which internally are important. Two are from Shanghai,
two are from the Communist Youth League - one is actually
from Shanghai and the Youth League as well but he’s really
from Shanghai - two have a long relationship with General
Secretary Xi. And then of course General Secretary Xi has
the overarching power as everyone says - and that is correct
and will be correct for a long time to come.
HOST: Absolutely, well certainly but breaking precedent by
not having a young leader coming up behind him and we
discussed this yesterday. The transfer of Mr. Xi will remain
in power for many more years to come, perhaps revive the
position of party chairman and stick around indefinitely.
RLK: There’s no question about the power and longevity of
Xi. I would put it a little differently. I’d say that it is not
even necessary for him to have the party chairmanship or
any particular title because of his overarching power by
having his name associated with “Xi Jinping Thought on
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” - that
whole phrase is now in the Party Constitution. Moreover, he
already had the designation of “Core” of the Party.
RLK: So those two elements – name in Constitution and
Core - are totally overarching over any particular title. That
said, not having a younger member of the Standing
Committee who is an obvious candidate for future
leadership, prevents there being a separate power center
that could undermine what Xi wants to do. So the fact that
Xi will be there until, potentially, the mid-2030s is very real.
I think now we should shift our attention to what Xi Jinping
wants to do. We need to look at the policies he is putting
forth, and see what they mean for China and for the world.
HOST: And I want to touch on that in a moment, but given
this power and position afforded to him in the constitution
no less, I mean where is room for discussion?
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HOST: If not dissent at least a little difference in opinion
when those who don’t agree with him basically, because he’s
in the constitution, are against the communist party. They
can leave or they can put up with it, no middle ground or
perhaps question?
RLK: This is a very interesting point and it goes to the party
concept of what they call democratic centralism and
collective leadership. When Xi was appointed Core about a
year ago, which was a very significant move, the party also
said it was reaffirming collective leadership. Now that
seems on its surface an oxymoron, contradictory, but in the
Chinese system it was not, and it’s good to understand why.
RLK: Xi has overarching decision making power which he
didn’t have before he was made ‘core’. But he is obligated
under the system to respect the system - if he continues to
do so, and I certainly expect he will - to really listen to all of
the opinions of the senior leaders, certainly the people in
the standing committee. And to conduct substantial
research, reviews with experts, and polling and iterative
kinds of research that they do for all their major documents.
So he is obligated to do such serious consultation under the
party system. Now can he subvert it the way Mao did? I
don’t think that’s really possible even if he tried and I don’t
think he will do that. So it’s a combination of him now
having the absolute power, no question about it, but still
respecting party norms of how they go about the research
and decision-making process.
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RLK: Now this will not mean overt dissent from the media.
Certainly, that has been suppressed and will arguably for
the foreseeable future continue to be. But in the inner
circles, he is obligated to continue to seek guidance and get
alternative opinions.
HOST: Speaking of the media you just reminded me of
something and we were having a lovely conversation
yesterday. I don’t think either of was being particularly
rude or anything. And let’s put up the video because you
and I were chatting about, just regular Chinese politics and
what was happening and this was what happened in our
office. We were shut down by the censors in the middle of
our conversation. What does that say about how things are
going to be run?
RLK: China is extremely sensitive during this particular
time of the 19th CPC National Congress. They do that for all
national meetings but this is probably the most central time.
All elements of media are under strictures. Who knows at
what level decisions are made? But even internet
connections this week have been terrible because of
extreme censorship. I expect that will lessen in the future.
But it is endemic of the situation and we will all learn to live
with it. As I said, there’s a larger picture here about what Xi
is going to do in terms of his people orientation,
rejuvenating China, comprehensively deepening reform,
and strengthening rule of law.
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RLK: We have to wait and see how that strengthening of
reform and strengthening of rule of law is going to turn out.
HOST: Indeed. I do have one final question because Mr.
Trump is heading that way in a matter of days really. What
does Mr. Xi make of Donald Trump? Donald Trump thinks
they’re best buddies. What do you think Mr. Xi makes of
Donald Trump?
RLK: Before Trump came into office I know very specifically
there were various think tanks that were engaging in
various scenario planning on how to deal with Trump and
his vicissitudes.
RLK: And the conclusion was to let it play out, don’t react
to virtually anything, and treat the U.S. just like it did in
normal times. And so I think that will be the approach. It’ll
be very straight forward. China won’t react to the highs or
lows. It’ll treat the protocol at a very high level. And I think
based on Trump’s personality that he will react well to that.
The substance that comes out of that, whether it’s North
Korea or trade, will have to wait. We could be quite
skeptical about the substance of the results, but I think the
form will look good.
HOST: It’s going to be fascinating. Robert Lawrence Kuhn,
great to have you on again. Appreciate your insights. Thank
you.
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